This brief threat assessment report by the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Institute (UNICRI) aims to analyse and assess the recent developments in Afghanistan and their broader implications on the security context at the domestic, regional, and international levels. This is a prelude to a more comprehensive report that will aim to explore and identify: (i) current sources of Taliban funding; (ii) the relationship between the Taliban and foreign terrorist groups, notably Al-Qaida and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K); (iii) the use of sanctions, and their unintended consequences; (iv) regional relations and dynamics; and (v) potential implications for the European security context. This research aims to provide actionable recommendations to guide the design of an integrated programme for neighbouring countries.
In the next months, UNICRI will hold a virtual expert-level meeting with representatives from UN entities, EU institutions, and selected regional and national experts to further outline these initial findings and discuss key areas where the international community can take mitigative measures. Following this, UNICRI will publish the final report, including detailed recommendations for short-term and medium-term activities. The final report will be launched in early 2023.